🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.