Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Central Topics in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most conservative administration in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense coalition during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the previous government in the summer, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
While backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is expected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in backing of the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating the conservative party.
