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As global leaders assemble in Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to evaluate how we are faring together in lowering global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of three decades of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the initial scientific evaluation by the IPCC, which verified the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political influences. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the planet is remains far from the path to avert dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that CO₂ concentrations hit a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year jumping by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. According to the Global Carbon Project, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in last year originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the other tenth resulted from land-use changes such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was driven by higher use of gas and oil—representing over half of global emissions—the use of coal also attained a record high, making up 41%. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to move beyond fossil fuels, global strategies still aim to extract over twice the amount of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of natural gas justified as a lower emission bridge fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Rather than concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the phase-out of carbon fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feelgood nature positive solutions that aim to cancel out carbon emissions by afforestation instead of reducing industrial emissions. While protecting, enlarging, and restoring ecological absorbers like forests and marshes is beneficial in itself, research has demonstrated that there is not enough land to reach the global goal of carbon neutrality using ecological methods by themselves.

Approximately one billion hectares—a territory bigger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like food production to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Even if this ideal restoration could be realized, forests require years to grow and are susceptible to fires, so they cannot be considered as a fast or lasting CO2 retention method, especially in a rapidly shifting climate. As severe temperatures and dryness engulf more of the planet, these sincere attempts could literally go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence indicates that about 50% of the carbon dioxide released each year remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is absorbed by oceans and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, which means that additional CO2 accumulates in the air, further exacerbating global warming. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the urgency to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present depends largely on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Emitting companies can simply purchase offsets to compensate for their emissions and proceed with business as usual. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance resulting from the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our global account, passing on future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and length of overshoot the global warming targets, the world eventually needs to surpass the neutralising effect of net zero and begin to drawdown past carbon outputs to reach net negative emissions.

The Political Distortion of Carbon Neutrality

According to the latest numbers from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is presently absorbing the equivalent of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while technology-based CDR represents only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. More generous sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eliminate the main source of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

While this scientific reality should dominate discussions at Cop30, history suggests that polite incrementalism and deference to politics will prevail. Vague statements of future ambition will continue to delay the pressing requirement for definite short-term measures. Unless policymakers are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are adding more and more carbon to the air, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding across the globe.

The challenge we face is simple: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our crisis or endure the results of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.